Track Trump

Donald Trump has made many statements about his plans. Below are the concrete items from Donald Trump's Contract with the American Voter, which contains his promises. Here, we will track fulfillment of those promises, and update it daily. It will be interesting to analyze his stance on gambling and regulation of online casino and betting operators. The President is a former casino owner himself so it will be all the more interesting to see if he will maintain the current State-by-State regulatory model or rather introduce some structural changes.

One aspect that has been causing somewhat of a stir in recent times is the growth of gambling-related gaming apps for mobile devices. Since young people – who are considered vulnerable subjects when it comes to gambling and all potential risks therein connected – are the heaviest mobile users, there are concerns about the accessibility of gambling apps. Whether or not some precautionary measures shall be put into place to limit access to gambling-related content for younger people is one of the many choices that President Trump will have to face during his mandate.

Immigration
Trade
Energy & Climate
Federal Government
Economic Policies
Education
Healthcare
Safety
 


Immigration

Immigration was by far the most active policy category on our tracker in the first 100 days. Reports suggest this is a driving issue for a number of President Trump’s inner circle, most critically Attorney General Jeff Sessions and White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon. The executive commands significant policymaking discretion in this arena: how it prioritizes populations for deportation, how asylum seekers are handled at the border, the frequency and intensity of immigration enforcement raids. And regardless of what the administration achieves in terms of actual policy, rhetoric and posturing are sure to have a psychological impact on the decision making process of undocumented immigrants navigating the system. In fact, illegal border crossings have dropped significantly in the past few months alone.

But the story of the Trump administration’s immigration policy is incomplete without examining ways in which institutions have stalled nearly all of administration’s core initiatives. The travel ban was enjoined almost immediately and faces uphill battles in the ninth and fourth circuits; its fate will likely be decided by the Supreme Court. Similarly, Trump’s executive order seeking to deny federal funds from sanctuary cities has been enjoined by a district court in California is scheduled to be considered by the court of appeals. Finally, Candidate Trump’s “big, beautiful” wall is dependent on a divided Congress for full funding. So far, Customs and Border Protection have allocated a mere $20 million of the required $20 billion for the project.

TRADE

Trade was a major talking point on the campaign trail. Candidate Trump assailed foundational trade agreements like NAFTA. True to form, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership within the first few days of taking office.

Taken as a whole, however, the administration’s trade policy in the first 100 days reflects a certain reticence and a pronounced disagreement among top advisors. President Trump reversed his position on labeling China a currency manipulator, citing the importance of keeping China at the table in security talks with North Korea. The administration has been hot and cold with a proposed withdrawal from NAFTA. Charitably interpreted, they mean to bring Canada and Mexico “to the table” to renegotiate the deal. A more critical take is that the both administration and President Trump himself are divided on this point.

ENERGY & CLIMATE

The thrust of the Trump administration’s energy and climate policy has been the revocation of rules and regulations seen by the administration as cumbersome or anti-business. Federal restrictions on projects like the Keystone and Dakota Access pipelines have been lifted. Under the authority of the Congressional Review Act, bills nullifying Obama-era environmental regulations have been signed. While it remains to be seen whether the administration will choose to remain Paris Climate Agreement, observers wonder if the dismantling of initiatives like the Clean Power Plan will make meeting Paris emission targets impossible to begin with.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

Candidate Trump promised to nominate a conservative Supreme Court Justice whose jurisprudence would resemble that of the late Justice Antonin Scalia. Candidate Trump also promised to “drain the swamp.” While President Trump certainly fulfilled the first pledge with the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, the rest of the President’s promises to reform the federal government remain in limbo.

An early presidential memorandum instituted a blanket federal government hiring freeze with the stated goal of reducing the federal workforce “through attrition.” Following negative press reports, the director of the Office of Management and Budget quietly ended the freeze two months later. Early in President Trump’s term, White House staff were made to sign ethics pledges restricting them from lobby activities. Subsequent reporting, however, has revealed that employees are being granted waivers on a case-by-case basis, blurring the lines between “policy” and “guidelines.”

ECONOMIC POLICY

Candidate Trump promised to dramatically simplify and reduce taxes and to make major investments in out-of-date infrastructure. The administration suggested it would release a tax plan on April 26th. Rather than a bill, the administration presented a one-page press release with stated goals for hypothetical tax reform. Our tracker accordingly registers related pledges as “inactive.” No specific proposals for infrastructure investment have been presented.

EDUCATION

None of candidate Trump’s pledges related to education policy, including ending Common Core and signing school choice legislation, have been acted upon.

HEALTHCARE

Candidate Trump’s core healthcare pledge to repeal and replace Obamacare was stalled when the replacement bill, the American Health Care Act, failed to gain requisite support in the House of Representatives. If passed, the bill would potentially address several campaign promises, including the ability to purchase insurance across state lines and allowing states to manage Medicaid funds. The President also signed an extension of a law signed by President Obama, the Veterans Access, Choice and Accountability Act, which allows veterans who qualify for VA services to be reimbursed for using certain outside providers.

SAFETY

President Trump signed several executive orders and presidential memoranda related to law enforcement and public safety. These orders created a promised task force on violent crime, asked for a review of existing laws related to violence against police officers, and instructed the Secretary of Defense to produce a review of current military infrastructure and equipment needs. Beyond the realm of specific promises, Attorney General has worked to reorient the priorities of the Justice Department from upholding civil liberties to cracking down on crime.

OTHER REFLECTIONS

CONFIRMATIONS

President Trump’s confirmation process continues to lag relative to President Obama’s. After 100 days, all of President Trump’s cabinet nominees have been confirmed. However, the administration is responsible for nominating 556 key positions, including most of the deputy and under-secretaries of the Cabinet-level agencies. To date, the administration has nominated 68 people, while the Obama administration had nominated 187.

MAJOR LEGISLATION

While direct comparisons between Presidents can be difficult, one useful frame of reference is to consider what an administration is able to accomplish legislatively. Passing significant legislation can require tremendous effort and political capital on the part of a new administration. “Significant legislation” in this context refers to bills that are clearly intended to have a real impact on the lives of most Americans and that provide the funding for what they intend to accomplish. This excludes extending current programs, nominating individuals to certain positions, or repealing regulations. For example, while a large stimulus package is significant, a bill to rename a post office in Illinois is not. Below we will consider the major legislative accomplishments in the first 100 days of the Trump and Obama presidencies.

None. All legislation extended programs, repealed regulation, or nominated/named individuals to positions. While the Trump administration tried several times to pass the American Health Care Act which would significantly alter the current health insurance marketplace, it never received a floor vote in the House or Senate.

President Obama had 5 pieces of legislation that would be considered significant under this criteria. They included the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009 combatting wage discrimination; the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 or “stimulus package” to promote economic recovery after the financial meltdown of 2008; an Omnibus Appropriations Act to fund the government; the Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009, which combined 159 previously considered pieces of legislation to designate over 2 million acres of land as national wilderness, monuments, forests, and rivers; and the Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act, creating five new national service organizations and expanding the existing AmeriCorps program.

GOING FORWARD

President Trump has run into legal trouble, both related to his campaign and to several of the executive orders that he has signed. The implementation of his order mandating the cooperation of local police in “sanctuary cities” with Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials has been delayed due to an injunction. Federal judges in Washington and Hawaii respectively have halted the implementation of both the original and revised versions of a travel ban focused on Muslim-majority countries. These lawsuits will continue to work their way through the appeals process, and it is very possible that some may end up on the Supreme Court’s docket.

Legislatively, the next priority for the Trump administration will be funding the federal government. While the House and Senate have passed a continuing resolution extending current funding levels to May 5, they will need to pass either an appropriations bill for 2017 or another continuing resolution by that date to avoid a government shutdown.

Thus far, much of the legislation that has been passed and signed into law by President Trump has been under the auspices of the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to repeal federal regulations within 60 days of those rules being reported to Congress. However, that deadline has passed, and no new legislation can be introduced that would extend back to regulations issued Obama’s tenure. Now that this avenue has been exhausted, Congress and the administration may begin looking for alternative ways to overturn previously-instituted regulations.

Immigration: Cancel all federal funding to sanctuary cities.

Update (7/25): In a Justice Department announcement, Attorney General Jeff Sessions warned local recipients of Byrne JAG grants ("the primary provider of federal criminal justice funding to state and local jurisdictions") that their FY 2017 grants would be conditioned on their cooperation with immigration authorities.

Energy: Cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure.

Update (7/13): After pledging that the remaining $2 billion of a $3 billion pledge by President Barack Obama to the United Nation's Green Climate Fund would not be delivered during his presidency, President Trump revealed in G20 negotiations that the US would use its influence on a 24-member board to steer the previously donated $1 bn toward fossel fuel-related projects.

Immigration: Establish a two-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the US after a previous deportation (5 years in case of a felony conviction, 2+ misdemeanor convictions, or 2+ prior deportations).

Update (6/29): At the encouragement of the administration, the House of Representatives passed Kate's Law which would establish harsher penalties for individuals with criminal backgrounds upon illegal re-entry. The bill will proceed to the Senate for debate.

Immigration: Suspend immigration from “terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur”.

Update (6/26): In an opinion, the Supreme Court granted the Trump administration's application to stay certain lower court injunctions against the travel ban, but only as they pertain "to foreign nationals who lack any bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the United States." The opinion had the effect of reviving certain parts of the order.

Immigration: All vetting of people coming into the US will be considered “extreme vetting”.

Update (6/21): President Trump signed an executive order amending Obama-era Executive Order 13597. The new order deletes subsection (b)(ii), which required "that 80 percent of nonimmigrant visa applicants [be] interviewed within 3 weeks of receipt of application" with exceptions connected to "resource and security considerations." White House spokesman Michael Short said of the new order: "The president expects careful, accurate vetting of visa applicants, not a rushed process to accommodate an arbitrary deadline."

Immigration: Begin removing “the more than two million criminal illegal immigrants” and cancel visas to countries who won’t take them back.

Update (5/17): Data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) revealed that the agency detained 41,318 individuals from January 22nd to April 30th 2017, a 37.6% increase from the same period the year before. The percentage of detainees with further criminal records decreased by 12%, revealing an expansion in the categories of individuals deemed suitable for detention. The number of deportations, however, decreased from 63,600 to 56,000 in the same period year-on-year.

Healthcare: Fully repeal Obamacare and replace it with Health Savings Accounts.

Update (5/4): In a vote of 217 to 213, the House of Representatives voted to pass the American Health Care Act. The bill will proceed to the Senate, which is anticipated to initiate draft its own version of the bill.

Immigration: All vetting of people coming into the US will be considered “extreme vetting”.

Update (5/4): The State Department published a notice soliciting feedback on proposals related to stricter screening of flagged applicants by consular officials. The proposals require the handover of applicants' social media handles, emails, phone numbers, prior passport and travel information, among other data.

Immigration

In Progress: Fully fund the construction of a wall on our border with Mexico, with the “full understanding that the country of Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall”.

Update (1/25): On a visit to the Department of Homeland Security, President Trump signed an executive order on border security and immigration calling for the “immediate construction of a physical wall on the southern border” and detailing specific steps to be taken by the Department of Homeland Security towards that end. The text of the order notes that it “shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.”

In Progress: Begin removing “the more than two million criminal illegal immigrants” and cancel visas to countries who won’t take them back.

Update (5/17): Data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) revealed that the agency detained 41,318 individuals from January 22nd to April 30th 2017, a 37.6% increase from the same period the year before. The percentage of detainees with further criminal records decreased by 12%, revealing an expansion in the categories of individuals deemed suitable for detention. The number of deportations, however, decreased from 63,600 to 56,000 in the same period year-on-year.

In Progress: Suspend immigration from “terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur”.

Update (6/26): In an opinion, the Supreme Court granted the Trump administration's application to stay certain lower court injunctions against the travel ban, but only as they pertain "to foreign nationals who lack any bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the United States." The opinion had the effect of reviving certain parts of the order.

In Progress: All vetting of people coming into the US will be considered “extreme vetting”.

Update (6/21): President Trump signed an executive order amending Obama-era Executive Order 13597. The new order deletes subsection (b)(ii), which required "that 80 percent of nonimmigrant visa applicants [be] interviewed within 3 weeks of receipt of application" with exceptions connected to "resource and security considerations." White House spokesman Michael Short said of the new order: "The president expects careful, accurate vetting of visa applicants, not a rushed process to accommodate an arbitrary deadline."

In Progress: Cancel all federal funding to sanctuary cities.

Update (7/25): In a Justice Department announcement, Attorney General Jeff Sessions warned local recipients of Byrne JAG grants ("the primary provider of federal criminal justice funding to state and local jurisdictions") that their FY 2017 grants would be conditioned on their cooperation with immigration authorities.

In Progress: Establish a two-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the US after a previous deportation (5 years in case of a felony conviction, 2+ misdemeanor convictions, or 2+ prior deportations).

Update (6/29): At the encouragement of the administration, the House of Representatives passed Kate's Law which would establish harsher penalties for individuals with criminal backgrounds upon illegal re-entry. The bill will proceed to the Senate for debate.

In Progress: Reform visa rules to increase penalties for overstaying and to ensure jobs are offered to American workers first.

Update (4/18): At an event in Kenosha, Wisconsin, President Trump signed an executive order titled “Buy American, Hire American.” One portion of the order instructs the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Labor, and the Secretary of Homeland Security to “propose new rules and issue new guidance…to protect the interests of United States workers” and specifically to “suggest reforms to help ensure that H-1B visas are awarded to the most-skilled or highest-paid petition beneficiaries.”

In Progress: Establish new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values.

Update (1/27): The executive order titled "Protecting the Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry Into the United States" states the following: “In order to protect Americans, the United States must ensure that those admitted to this country do not bear hostile attitudes toward it and its founding principles. The United States cannot, and should not, admit those who do not support the Constitution, or those who would place violent ideologies over American law. In addition, the United States should not admit those who engage in acts of bigotry or hatred (including “honor” killings, other forms of violence against women, or the persecution of those who practice religions different from their own) or those who would oppress Americans of any race, gender, or sexual orientation” (Sec. 1). Sec. 4 of the same order tasks the multiple agencies to submit within 60 days an initial report on the progress of a program to increase the scrutiny applied to foreign nationals seeking to enter the United States.

Trade

Renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA.
Implemented: Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Update (1/23): President Trump signed a memorandum withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. As the Trans-Pacific Partnership was never ratified by Congress, this order represents a symbolic declaration of the administration’s intent not to pursue the deal.

Failed: Label China a currency manipulator.

Update (4/12): In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, President Trump said he did not plan to label China a currency manipulator, stating that the country had not been manipulating its currency for months and that he needs China’s support confronting North Korea.

In Progress: Identify and end foreign trading abuses.

Update (3/31):  President Trump signed executive orders targeting unlawful trade practices. The orders instruct various government officials, including the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, and the U.S. Trade Representative, to develop a plan to combat violations of U.S. trade laws within 90 days. The Attorney General is instructed to develop corresponding enforcement measures.

Establish tariffs to discourage offshoring.

Energy & Climate

In Progress: Lift the restrictions on $50 trillion dollars’ worth of American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas, and clean coal.

Update (4/28): President Trump signed an executive order targeting restrictions on offshore drilling. The order instructs the Department of Interior to conduct a review of the federal government’s leasing schedule for US federal waters. It also orders a review of areas designated as National Marine Sanctuaries within the past ten years. Finally, the order revokes or requests the review of a number of rules and regulations concerning offshore drilling.

Implemented: Lift the roadblocks on energy infrastructure projects like the Keystone Pipeline and allow them to move forward.

Update (3/24): In an Oval Office ceremony, President Trump granted approval for the TransCanada Corporation to commence construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. The project would connect crude oil in Alberta to the pre-existing pipeline network in the United States. A number of federal, state, and local hurdles remain, however.

In Progress: Cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure.

Update (7/13): After pledging that the remaining $2 billion of a $3 billion pledge by President Barack Obama to the United Nation's Green Climate Fund would not be delivered during his presidency, President Trump revealed in G20 negotiations that the US would use its influence on a 24-member board to steer the previously donated $1 bn toward fossel fuel-related projects.

Federal Government

Propose a constitutional amendment that imposes term limits on all members of Congress.
Failed: A hiring freeze on all federal employees (except for the military, public safety, and public health).

Update (4/12): The Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney announced an end to the federal hiring freeze enacted at the beginning of President Trump’s term. As a replacement policy, he circulated a memo to heads of executive departments and agencies giving guidance on how best to reduce their workforces, instructing them to submit specific plans on how they will do so.

In Progress: A requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations be dropped.

Update (1/30): President Trump signed an executive order instructing that when a department or agency "publicly proposes for notice and comment or otherwise promulgates a new regulation, it shall identify at least two existing regulations to be repealed.” It also outlines a process, led by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, to bring down incremental costs associated with regulation. However, it will be incumbent upon agencies and departments to comply with the order.

In Progress: A five-year ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service.

Update (1/28): President Trump signed an executive order that includes an ethics pledge for “every appointee in every executive agency appointed on or after January 20, 2017” to sign, committing them to refrain from lobbying activities “with respect to that agency” for five years after the end of their appointment. Lobbying activities concerning agencies outside of one’s agency of service are not addressed.

Implemented: A lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government.

Update (1/28): President Trump signed an executive order containing an ethics pledge for “every appointee in every executive agency appointed on or after January 20, 2017” to sign, committing them to refrain from activity on behalf of any foreign government or foreign political party “at any time” after termination of one’s service.

A complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.
Cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum, and order issued by President Obama.
Implemented: Begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia.

Update (4/10): Judge Neil Gorsuch took the Judicial Oath in the Rose Garden this morning, sworn in by his former boss Justice Anthony Kennedy. After taking a separate Constitutional Oath, he is now the 113th Justice of the Supreme Court.

Enact “new ethics reforms to drain the swamp”.

Economic Policy

A 35% tax cut for middle-class families with two children.
Reduce the number of tax brackets from 7 to 3.
Reduce the business tax rate from 35% to 15%.
Allow American corporations to repatriate money at a 10% rate.
Allow Americans to deduct childcare and eldercare costs from their taxes, and create tax-free dependent care savings account (with matching contributions for low-income families).
A revenue-neutral $1 trillion infrastructure investment over 10 years.

Education

An act to allow school choice.
End common core.
Make two- and four-year college more affordable.

Healthcare

In Progress: Fully repeal Obamacare and replace it with Health Savings Accounts.

Update (5/4): In a vote of 217 to 213, the House of Representatives voted to pass the American Health Care Act. The bill will proceed to the Senate, which is anticipated to initiate draft its own version of the bill.

Ability to purchase health insurance across state lines.
Let states manage Medicaid funds.
Cut the red tape at the FDA.
Provide veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or treatment from the private doctor of their choice.

Safety

Implemented: Create a task force on violent crime.

Update (2/8): President Trump signed an executive order tasking the Attorney General with the creation and staffing of a “Task Force on Crime Reduction and Public Safety.” The task force is ordered to “develop strategies to reduce crime,” “evaluate deficiencies in existing laws” and “propose new legislation” related to public safety. The task force is also ordered to “evaluate the…adequacy of crime related data” and to “conduct any other studies” accordingly.

Increase funding for programs that train and assist local police.
In Progress: Increase resources for federal law enforcement agencies and prosecutors.

Update (2/9): President Trump signed an executive order today aiming to “prevent violence against federal, state, tribal, and local law enforcement officers.” The order directs the Department of Justice to review current laws, develop strategies, and pursue appropriate legislation, including “defining new crimes of violence and establishing new mandatory minimum sentences for existing crimes of violence against Federal, State, tribal, and local law enforcement officers.” The order further instructs the Department of Justice to review and recommend any changes in grant funding for the named law enforcement entities.

In Progress: Eliminate the defense sequester and expand military investment.

Update (1/27): President Trump signed a memorandum instructing the Secretary of Defense to conduct a 30-day review of readiness conditions, equipment, and submit to the White House a plan of action to achieve the standards indicated in the review. The memo also calls for the Office of Management and Budget to develop a budget that takes into account any proposed reallocations or appropriations.

Protect our infrastructure from cyber attack.
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